Worried about how hot it’s been recently? Let’s take a look at the data.
A Year of Unprecedented Heat
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2024 is on fire – literally. As we pass the halfway mark of 2024, it’s becoming glaringly obvious that this year is on track to become the hottest on record.
Hottest Year Ever? The Numbers Don’t Lie
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According to Carbon Brief’s latest analysis, there’s a 95% chance this year will outdo 2023 as the hottest year on record. This comes as no surprise to many, given the extreme climate events we’ve seen unfold so far this year.
The Peak of Global Heat
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July 2024 has been a scorcher. Monday the 22nd was the world’s hottest day ever, with the average global temperature smashing global records and hitting highs of 17.15°C (62.87°F). Temperatures were 1.7°C (3.06°F) above pre-industrial levels.
A Week of Extremes
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But let’s put it in perspective – the hottest day on earth before Monday, the 22nd of July, was, surprisingly, Sunday, the 21st. Yep – one day before, the earth reached temperatures we’d never seen before.
How July 2024 Stacks Up Against Last Year
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The record was previously set on July 6th, 2023, and before that in 2016, so hopefully, this isn’t a trend that continues – but it does seem to be ramping up as the years go on.
Cooling Off or Not?
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Carbon Brief’s analysis claims that July 2024 is on track to be cooler than July 2023 but still 0.2°C (32.4°F) warmer than any July before 2023, although this latest week of extreme heat could skew their data.
The El Niño Factor
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This “cooldown” – if you can call it that – comes as El Niño conditions fade and La Niña conditions potentially develop later this year.
13 Months of Rising Temps
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Global temperatures have set new records for each of the first six months of 2024 – a streak that started in 2023. The last 13 months in a row have been the warmest on record since the mid-1850s.
January to June
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January to April 2024 saw temperatures about 0.1°C (0.18°F) above previous records, while May 2024 was about 0.2°C (0.36°F) warmer than the previous record. Even June 2024, compared to the already high temperatures of 2023, was about 0.15°C (0.27°F) warmer.
A Scorching Start
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Even if the second half of the year is cooler, the first half was so boiling that 2024 is almost guaranteed to set a new record.
Countries Feeling the Heat
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But just how hot has it been? Well, countries worldwide have felt the endless heat. Extreme heat has hit South America, the southern US, Mexico, northern Africa, western Europe, central Asia, and the Middle East.
A Record-Breaker for 63 Nations
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June was brutal, with 63 countries – mostly in Africa and South America – recording their hottest national averages ever.
Hot Spots
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Places like Brazil, Egypt, Greece, and South Africa are all seeing heat on a level they’ve never seen before. Over the past 12 months, 138 countries have recorded their highest temperatures ever.
The Melting Polar Ice
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While the heat is bad, its consequences are worse. Polar ice is rapidly melting, and the Antarctic sea ice extent (the area covered by sea ice) is nearly as low as 2023’s record. In the last year, only a small part of East Antarctica saw record-cold temperatures.
Paris Agreement in Peril?
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Carbon Brief estimates that there is a 95% chance that this year will surpass 2023 as the hottest on record. They’re predicting the earth’s temperature will hit 1.57°C (34.85°F) above pre-industrial levels – which is above the 1.5°C (34.7°F) that was agreed upon at the Paris Agreement.
Short-Term Records vs. Long-Term Goals
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Hitting 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in a single year doesn’t mean we’ve breached the Paris Agreement’s limit, as that’s a target for long-term global- warming.
What Do These Temperatures Mean?
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Long-term global temperatures aren’t expected to exceed 1.5°C until the late 2020s or early 2030s – but these record-breaking years are a dire warning of what’s to come.
Why These Records Matter
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The temperatures we’re seeing – like those on July 22 – are signs of a much bigger problem. It’s a clear signal that our climate is changing rapidly, and the effects are being felt worldwide.
The Ripple Effects of 2024’s Heat
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Climate experts warn that the urgency for climate action has never been more pressing. They claim that if these trends continue, the future looks increasingly bleak. 2024 is on track to become the hottest year ever recorded – and the consequences are global.
Featured Image Credit: Shutterstock / SERDTHONGCHAI.
