50 Million Americans Could Become ‘Climate Migrants’

The more people flock away from “danger zones” prone to flooding and such, the more “dramatically different” the US will look in just a few decades. 

Packing Up 

It had to happen sooner or later: due to the increasing effects (and dangers) of climate change, millions of Americans are packing up and migrating to other cities that aren’t deemed as “danger zones”.

In fact, in 2023, about 2.5 million US residents were displaced by wildfires, floods, hurricanes, and other extreme weather events – and this year doesn’t look to be any better. 

Blame the Weather 

As per the First Street Foundation, over 3 million Americans, who have already relocated, cited climate considerations as the reason. 

Only the Beginning 

And if those stats continue the way they currently do, more than 50 million US citizens could be calling themselves “climate migrants” within the next few decades.

Some Eyes Are Opening 

Dr Jeremy Porter, head of climate implications at First Street Foundation, spoke with DailyMail.com and claimed more people are becoming aware of climate factors – and relocating accordingly.

“Over the past five years, people have really started to pay attention to the climate data as something that impacts their moves,” he said. 

Other Stats 

These facts show up in other polls as well. 

According to a recent report by Zillow, 80% of US residents consider climate risks when house hunting. 

And a Forbes study also showed that 30% of homeowners cited climate change as their reason for moving. 

Flooding’s a Big One 

As Dr Porter says: “If you couple flood risk with what we are already seeing from population projections from NASA, we are seeing there are going to be some places that do look dramatically different.”

Changing the Look of America? 

This checks out with what scientists told DailyMail.com – that various cities are “slowly dying” because of residents moving away from popular waterside locations prone to flooding.

This will result in many metros looking “dramatically different” in only a few decades.  

Where Are They Moving From?

According to the First Street Foundation report, the top metro areas predicted to lose the most amount of people due to flood risks are the areas of:

• Minneapolis
• Indianapolis
• Milwaukee
• Providence 
• Las Vegas.

Don’t Blame (Only) the Rain 

This report, according to Dr Porter, is mainly focused on flooding as the reason for moving. 

However, researchers say other factors like wildfires and excessive temperatures are also to blame. 

Location Matters 

And indeed, the top two counties in Minneapolis, Minnesota (Hennepin and Ramsey) people are moving away from are both near the Mississippi River, whose banks are known to regularly burst. 

It Impacts Everything 

As warmer weather means bigger storms and more rain (which overwhelms sewer systems), climate change is certainly expanding the problem. 

Danger Zone #1: Hennepin County

Over in Minneapolis’ Hennepin County, the number of blocks classified as “climate abandonment areas” is set to rise from the current 23% to 56.9% in 2053. 

Danger Zone #2: Ramsey County

And Ramsey County is predicted to have its percentage of blocks set to be abandoned increase from today’s 29% to 54.3% by 2053. 

Not Too Far Away 

It’s worth mentioning that “climate migrants” usually move only a few dozen miles to what they deem a safer spot.

As Dr Porter told DailyMail.com: “Most moves driven by climate change are hyper-local. In fact, out of all domestic moves, only 15% are across state lines. People tend to stay within their state.”

Where Are They Moving To?

As per the study, the top areas currently experiencing an influx of climate migrants include: 

• Jefferson County in Louisville, Kentucky; 
• Macomb County in Detroit, Michigan; 
• Newark County in Passaic, New Jersey; 
• Oakland County in Detroit; 
• San Mateo County in San Francisco, California.

Safety First

Although there are various factors causing people to choose their new locations, according to Dr Porter it’s because these are generally regarded as “safe” zones located near a climate-risky zone people are fleeing from. 

Another Survey Agrees 

Back in 2022, Forbes Home conducted its own survey – and they found that:

• The amount of Americans claiming their move in the last two years as “unexpected” was 51%. 
• Almost one-third of US citizens cited climate change as a reason to move.
• 34% of participants who will shortly move or have recently moved in the last two years named “better weather” as their reason. 

Not Only Climate Change

By using intricate mathematical equations in its analysis, the First Street report identifies economic-, social-, and various other factors, distinct from climate change, as the chief drivers of migration. 

A Definite Deciding Factor 

However, the statistics make it clear that more and more people are considering climate risk when moving.  

“We are seeing property value decrease in climate-risky areas,” says Dr Porter. “As the data becomes more and more available, the more we will see this.” 

Many More to Leave 

He also added: “The climate knowledge has exploded over the past five years and we are starting to see people responding to that.”  

Referring to current statistics and predicted percentages for the future, Dr Porter says: “This is just the start.”

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