Texas Threat to Thirst – Mexico Falls Behind on Water Payments Treaty

A water treaty between Mexico and the U.S. isn’t going well, and many are worried about an impending water shortage.

The Rio Grande Water Wars

Eighty years ago, the U.S. and Mexico signed a treaty to share water from the Rio Grande and Colorado Rivers. Back then, water was plentiful, and no one could have predicted just how critical this agreement would become.

A Tale of Two Eras

Fast forward to today, and the situation couldn’t be more different. Droughts, exploding populations, and climate change have turned this once-stable arrangement into a ticking time bomb.

Mexico’s 265 Billion Gallon IOU

The 1944 treaty was supposed to ensure both countries got their fair share of water. Now Mexico is lagging a massive 265 billion gallons behind on its water deliveries to the U.S., and the situation is growing tense.

When the Well Runs Dry

Texas, which relies heavily on this water for everything from citrus farming to keeping its cities running, is feeling the thirst. 

Texas in Thirst

The state’s last sugar mill just shut down because there wasn’t enough water, and now lawmakers are sounding the alarm that the citrus industry in the Lower Rio Grande Valley could be next.

Race Against Time

With the current five-year cycle of the treaty ending incredibly soon – October 2025 – many are wondering how Mexico can possibly catch up.

Cities on the Brink

It’s not just the farmers and ranchers who are worried – the water that’s supposed to flow from Mexico also keeps cities along the border running. Without it, daily life for thousands of Americans could change dramatically.

Congress Takes Action

Politicians are getting frustrated. A group of ten U.S. representatives, crossing party lines, recently sent a letter to Congress saying it’s time to put the pressure on Mexico.

Withholding Funds for Water

Their suggestion is to withhold any non-border control-related funds until Mexico coughs up the water it owes.

A Bleak Reality Check

Maria-Elena Giner, the U.S. commissioner of the International Boundary and Water Commission, didn’t mince her words in an interview with NPR. She’s been blunt about the reality, saying Mexico is at its lowest water delivery levels ever. “it will be very difficult, if not statistically impossible, for them to make up that difference,” she warns.

Déjà Vu

It’s not like this is the first time Mexico has fallen behind. Toward the end of the last five-year cycle, which wrapped up just before the 2020 U.S. presidential election, Mexico came up short on its water deliveries.

A Band-Aid Solution

They managed to scrape by with a last-minute transfer of water from reservoirs along the border, but it nearly drained all of northern Mexico’s stored water. This left the region even more vulnerable.

Leaky Pipes and Lost Billions

Back home in the U.S., things aren’t going too well either. Texas alone lost a massive 129 billion gallons of water in 2022 because of leaky, outdated infrastructure. It’s a mess on both sides of the border – and everyone’s paying the price.

The Middleman Dilemma

Last year, Texas officials tried to fix things by proposing a treaty amendment that would let Mexico send water directly to South Texas, cutting out the middleman – the Mexican state of Tamaulipas.

Election Year Politics

It sounded like a solid plan, but the timing couldn’t be worse. With Mexico’s presidential election on the horizon, experts warn there’s no way they’re going to prioritize U.S. needs over their own. It would be a tough sell for any politician – especially when their own cities are dealing with water crises of their own.

Mexico’s Water Priority

In April, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador made it crystal clear that his first priority is making sure his own people have water, not companies or, by extension, the U.S. “Priority must be given to domestic water, which is consumed by people rather than by companies,” he said.

New President, Same Problems

And it looks like the next president, Claudia Sheinbaum, is likely to follow in his footsteps when she takes office later this year – so don’t expect any quick water resolutions.

The Debt Rollover

The treaty allows for a water debt to carry over into the next five-year cycle, so technically Mexico has a bit of breathing room. But falling short two cycles in a row would complicate things even more. It’s an outcome neither Mexico nor the U.S. can afford.

A Triple Threat

We’ve got a perfect storm brewing: extreme weather making water scarce, humans breeding like crazy, and rapidly crumbling water systems. This 80-year-old deal is about ready to snap.

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